Joshua Dobbs has been one the best stories of the NFL season so far and looks to add another chapter to his football folklore when the Minnesota Vikings host the New Orleans Saints in Week 10 odds.
Dobbs, who parlayed his sudden success in Arizona into a trade to the Vikings before Week 9, had to step in for injured backup quarterback Jaren Hall and willed Minnesota to a 31-28 victory over Atlanta despite being with the team for only a few days.
Dobbs & Co. get a tougher test against this New Orleans defense, which ranks among the stingiest in the land. The Saints sit Top 10 in many advanced defensive ratings, including allowing the ninth-lowest points per play.
I’ll dissect the NFL odds and give my best NFL picks for Saints vs. Vikings on November 12.
Saints vs Vikings odds
Saints vs Vikings predictions
A good quarterback not only takes responsibility for his own actions but also comes to the defense of others. New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr did just that this week when asked about the poor production from second-year receiver Chris Olave.
“He’s a great teammate. He does anything you ever ask him,” Carr told reporters. “Sometimes even when it’s the hard stuff, he goes in there and he does it. We called on him to put us in a better field goal position. Boom, he comes up for us.”
Olave has finished Under his receiving yards prop in five of the last six games, including a pair of 46-yard efforts in the past two outings. On the season, the Ohio State product has 564 receiving yards with 50 catches from 86 targets.
Carr hasn’t been hitting Olave for deeper strikes downfield in recent games. And while his target share is still high, those looks have been on shorter and intermediate throws, leaving Olave to average about eight yards per reception.
Olave’s downtick in production has his yardage prop for Week 10 currently listed at 60.5 against the Minnesota Vikings.
Minnesota ranks middle of the road in terms of pass defense but hasn’t faced many capable QBs along the way, matchup up with the likes of Tampa Bay, Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay, and Atlanta. When the Vikings have come upon quality quarterbacks, they’ve been burned by Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers.
The blitz-happy approach of defensive coordinator Brian Flores has left Minnesota susceptible to yards after the catch, allowing the third-most YAC on the year. That gap in the Vikes’ defense will help Olave turn those shorter receptions into big gains.
Olave leads NOLA in yards after catch and ranks among the best receivers in the NFC when it comes to adding those bonus gains (184 YAC). He can do damage in different ways and bounces between the slot and lining up out wide.
Player projections for Olave are mainly positive, with the bulk sitting past his 60.5-yard total for Week 10. My number comes out to just shy of 66 yards, while the ceiling is close to 73 yards from some forecasts.
Given the Vikings will have a brand new QB running their offense, NOLA could end up with plenty of possessions and a chance for Carr to cool the chatter around his budding star WR.
My best bet: Chris Olave Over 60.5 receiving yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Saints vs Vikings same-game parlay
Chris Olave Over 60.5 receiving yardsOver 3.5 field goals madeSaints ML
+475 at bet365
Olave and Carr started clicking against Chicago and his projections point to an Over on his receiving prop.
Meanwhile, With the Vikings’ offense stalling out and the Saints struggling inside the RZ, we could see plenty of drives ending in field goal attempts. The Saints’ defense will be too much for Minnesota to handle, especially with Joshua Dobbs running a dumbed-down playbook.
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