Boy oh boy, we love our betting trends as the Super Bowl odds continue to narrow down.
The easily digestible nuggets of insight go down like a bag of “Flamin’ Hot Cheetos”.
Unfortunately, most trends have about the same nutritional value in terms of worth to our wagers. And just like those addictive crunchy orange sticks of dynamite, trends can come back to burn you.
If you’ve been around the betting block when it comes to the Championship Sunday odds, you’ve likely stumbled upon two red-hot trends that pertain to this weekend’s NFL underdogs: the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.
Kansas City is catching points in Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs boast a 10-3-1 record (77%) against the spread as underdogs since Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1 in 2018, including 8-0-1 ATS as road pups.
Spicy.
Detroit is a bigger dog out west visiting San Francisco in the NFC title game. The Lions are 21-10 ATS (68%) as underdogs since Dan Campbell arrived as head coach, including a 12-4 ATS clip when getting six or more points in the NFL odds.
Peppery.
So, what’ll it be?
Honestly, I’m not gushing over either underdog this Sunday, but there is one side I am feeling the heat from considering the recent line movement.
Let’s break out the chopsticks (the best way to eat FHCs) and indulge in some “Flamin’ Hot” NFL picks for Sunday.
Last week: 1-1 ATS
Season: 26-30-2 ATS
NFL Conference Championship picks and predictions
- Chiefs +4
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Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Baltimore Ravens pick
If you follow what I do for Covers each week, you’ll note that I suggested taking the Baltimore Ravens -3 when odds for the AFC Championship hit the board last Sunday night.
This was part of my weekly “Bet Now, Bet Later” article, which predicts market movement and highlights spreads and totals that will adjust before kickoff. This isn’t always an actual bet from me but a suggestion that if you like a side — like Baltimore in the AFC title game — don’t wait.
I noted that most shops were dealing Ravens -3.5 and that I could see this spread going to -4, considering key injuries for the Kansas City Chiefs, as well as some other factors (like the Ravens whooping the ass of the NFL’s elite this season). I also noted the significance of a 4-point spread, in terms of key numbers in NFL betting.
Here we are on Wednesday and those -3’s are long gone. Most operators are at Ravens -3.5 with the vig starting to swell. And what do you know? Here come the fours.
Before I go forward, I do think Baltimore is going to win this game — or at least is set up best to win. But with the number creeping past the field goal and now hitting -4, I’m taking a long, hard look at the Chiefs.
Those injuries that were flagged coming out of the Divisional Round are starting to sort themselves out.
It appears LB Willie Gay is trending toward playing, with X-rays coming back negative on his neck, which is huge for defending Baltimore and Lamar Jackson. However, OL Joe Thuney (pectoral) is leaning toward missing Sunday’s conference title game. As for injuries to S Mike Edwards (concussion) and DT Derrick Nnadi (triceps), Thursday and Friday practice reports will be key.
Matchup-wise, the Ravens look awesome in just about every category. They’re one of the best two-way teams in the land and all the basic and advanced stats back it up. You can check out my Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions for more on just how good Baltimore is.
Kansas City can be right up there with them, at least when the offense plays to its potential. The Chiefs’ attack has run hot and cold all year but seems to be getting its groove back, aided by two banged-up opponents in the opening rounds of the playoffs.
The big factor at play is Patrick Mahomes. He’s a winner and will give this team a shot if the Chiefs are close in the fourth quarter. As much as I love Lamar Jackson, those tangy trends around KC as an underdog hold up with a guy like Mahomes under center.
That’s especially true with the spread now at four points. It allows me to gorge on one of my favorite betting trends: beware the 4-point favorite.
Since 2018, NFL favorites of -4 are just 31-51-2 ATS (38%). Those 4-point faves are also just 44-40 SU (52%), which is strange because 3.5-point favorites win outright at a 65% clip and -4.5 chalk is victorious at a similar rate.
The 4-point spread is somewhat of a “no man’s land” of point spreads. Those teams are better than a field goal fave but not quite strong enough to lay -5 and move to -6, somehow exceeding and falling short of expectations at the same time.
At this point in the NFL schedule, the lines are the toughest we’ve faced all season. They’re pulsing with a season’s worth of data and sculpted by action and opinion from pros and joes. Getting the best number is the best way to beat the book.
So, if you like the Ravens and got the -3 on Sunday night, good stuff. If you’re late to the party but still want to bet Baltimore, I’d pass on the point spread and go moneyline (-185 to -200 as of this writing).
But if you’re buying into Kansas City’s sterling record as a pup and have the same apprehension when it comes to 4-point faves, take the +4 with Mahomes & Co.
PICK: Chiefs +4 (-110 at Fanatics)
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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